This industry is dynamic.
It is so hard to ask for help because:
A- so few people have run a 9 figure business
B- Even fewer are running that business RIGHT NOW, with the current technology and tools
C- So many people are trying to make money off of you, so their opinion is biased.
This leads to a bunch of disparate recommendations.
Everyone points you in a different direction.
Either because of experience or self interest.
That leads to industry wide contention.
The wars of 2022 (we will not be talking about the actual war)
Lets look at the hottest, most contested battles of 2022.
How did these wars shake out?
The Attribution Civil War:
Marketer vs Marketer.
Founder vs Agency.
How did this end?
What is the current path in 2023?
Well, this war fizzled out.
Triplewhale, northbeam, rockerbox all still exist.
But the demand and fever around the service died off.
Why? Well Facebook got better.
IOS 14 was the catalyst for this and made this category hot.
But… facebook started working again.
Tracking is back, not perfect, but functional.
CPMs are down, making it easy to win.
And people realized attribution helps you understand your marketing, but it doesnt fix your business.
Desperate brands turned to anything when it felt like they were dying, but if the fundamental business was trash, the tool just helped you see the trash in 4k.
The reality is, those brands died.
The war ended in a cold stalemate as the industry moved onto the next hot thing- AI.
My opinion on it:
If you are spending less than 1m a month, or are spending on less than 2 channels in a meaningful amount, attribution software isnt helpful.
But if you are spending north of 1m a month, then yes you do need it.
DTC vs AMAZON:
Purists vs Reactionaries.
The idea of DTC died the day Casper was taken private.
It was an interesting investment thesis:
Millennials are the first online generation.
They have their own identity separate from their parents and older siblings.
They wont resonate with legacy brands in the same way that Gen X did.
For 70 years it was the same brands, using the same channels, to sell the same stuff.
The internet can disrupt this like it did media consumption!
Yeah it worked, but not perfectly.
What made these brands successful, millennials willingness to discover and try new brands, also made them fail- you cant reach critical mass with a generation who has infinite options.
You end up getting a warby parker or an away, raised 100+ million to never make any real money.
Both of these brands are getting lapped by a goblin king who shitposts.
And why is that?
They are trying to build an idealistic version of community, cult, BRAND with an audience that gets older, has more options, and prioritizes connivence.
Do you know the number one reason people shop on amaozn?
Shipping times, duh.
The number 2 reason? “My credit card info is saved”.
People are lazy. Pulling your card out is too hard.
But no, Casper is going to win by making it VERY hard to find our product.
like they are fucking goyard lol
Anyway-
Wars over.
Allbirds down 90%.
Ridge up 9000.
Just sell on amaozn.
Dont be an allbirds.
Remote or in person:
Global vs Local
Maybe this war isnt over.
But in my mind it is.
You cant be “We ONLY hire A+ talent”
And also be “We ONLY hire people in THIS city”
Its a logical fallacy. You arent hiring the best people. You are hiring the people who live close to you and are willing to work there.
You are settling.
On top of that, in person work does require a premium.
As more companies are making people return to office, remote work becomes MORE in demand.
Hiring a remote role, you get 4x as many applicants in 4x less time, and people are willing to take a pay cut for the role.
This feels like the 2023 version of globalization.
US manufactures couldnt compete with low cost manufacturing in Mexico, China, and Korea.
In person teams wont be able to compete with remote teams.
We will have better processes, better talent, more loyal talent, and we can hire 2x as many people for the same ops cost.
Maybe we see this war boil over in 2023, but the outcome is clear.
Remote will win.
2023 is a year of peace.
The industry needs to rebuild.
IPOs and transations are near bottom.
That bottom will stay there for 2 years.
Tourists are moving out.
Ecom is a vacation town, we closed up for winter.
Take 2023, meet your neighbor, and do the repairs you need to.
2025 will be the next summer season.
Be ready to sell by then.
I’m probably being dumb (and being a Gen xer) but I can’t see how to keep a team long term being full remote. It feels like a collection of silos who don’t fully fuse into a collective. I heard you on Eli’s podcast say no one has ever quit. Whats the day to day like for the 50 people to get them to gel and feel like a part of a greater whole. I’m going to scream if the answer is more memes in slack channels… maybe at your size the jobs are more atomized and discenrable. We are three years in and every quarter 30% of what we are doing is for the first time and feels like it would be harder if it was fully remote (with new people).