Is it harder? Or are you worse
Reply guys need not apply
Overall sentiment around DTC is at a 5 year low.
More people are publicly talking about losing, instead of quietly whispering it.
A lot of times, people frame these conversations like “I hear people are suffering, DONT WORRY I AM CRUSHING IT THOUGH”
Why do they do that?
Public perception is real. it can affect valuations. It can affect hiring and moral.
And as entrepreneurs, we tend to be “best outcome” minded.
its why people can look you dead in the face and try to raise money, when they know without your check they are bankrupt next week.
I pride myself on being transparent.
Why?
Well, its harder to lie.
It takes mental energy to remember all those fucking lies, easier to tell the truth.
Also- I dont need anything from anyone. Self funded, profitable, not looking to sell. I dont give a fuck what people think of me. I dont need too. If you have ever seen how I dress, you will know this is true lol
Lastly, you only get help when you ask. When I do have problems, I talk about them. So better to be honest and transparent all the time.
So, with no pride or ego, I say this:
Ridge is thriving, despite a more difficult environment.
We have had multiple 8 figure months this year, at a better efficiency than last year.
Revenue is at an all time high, profits up even higher than revenue.
It has felt very good at Ridge this year.
Best year ever.
BUT I UNDERSTAND THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE STRUGGLING
It feels like the community wants to fucking ignore that.
So here is some data:
Ecom penetration rate is FLAT for 3 years now.
Essentially EXACTLY where it would be without covid.
That means, without the pie GROWING, more merchants are just competing for the same pie.
THAT IS A FUCKING FACT
Sure the economy is growing, so the pie is growing slightly, but that has mostly been inflation.
If you are growing more than 8% per year, for the past 3 years, you are taking dollars from someone BECAUSE THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF DOLLARS ARENT GROWING
Amazon sales by quarter.
Q1 was DOWN YOY, 51.10 billion vs 51.13 billion.
Q4 was down too. Two quarters of declining amazon sales.
THIS IS A FUCKING FACT THAT IS REPORTED BY AMAZON
Shopify GMV is growing still.
They will surpass amazon in GMV this year.
But they arent growing that fast, 15% YOY, probably less in Q2
And the big difference is shopify is adding more merchants, amazon isnt adding more CUSTOMERS
We bring our own customers to shopify.
So when they add a Glossier, that is all brand new GMV. It grows the shopify pie, but those dollars were already accounted for in the ecom penetration numbers.
Its moving pie from one table to another.
SUMMARY:
When I say it is the worst time in 5 years to start something in this industry (agency, app, brand) I am fucking right.
Without a doubt, the datas shows, Ecommerce stagflation.
Does that mean you should throw in the towel?
Does that mean you are destined to go out of business?
NO. OBVIOUSLY NOT.
Actually, I am seeing a TON of brand KILL IT.
Yeah Ridge is doing great, but so is hexclad.
And HUNDREDS OF OTHER BRANDS.
But, stop being stupid. Look at a fucking earnings report.
It isnt covid anymore. Just because what i am saying makes it harder to sell a course to a rube, doesnt make me the enemy.
You can still win in this. You just need to be better than the market.
I dont think mr drop ship course is.
PROVE ME WRONG