Ecom is over... Now what?

How bad is it really?

I am an extremist.
I am the guy standing on the corner, yelling about how the world is ending.
Why? idk it is a lot more fun I guess lol

But really- Business, in its default state, is the second hardest thing humans can do.
It should be incredibly difficult to make money.
A ten year bull run that ended in free money excess diluted people’s thinking.

No one has a right to be successful.

VC propaganda about “raising money and changing the world” told a narrative that is untrue and foreign to over 99% of businesses.

You need to make revenue.
You need to turn a profit on that money.
Things actually get harder at scale, not easier.

I wrote two pieces on how/why ecom is over:

• The first- Death of the 10 million dollar brand, in 2020.

• The second- "An Unbiased Case Study in Scaling to $100M” was a talk I did at ECF live.

  • I wont link it, but somewhere on that website is a 45 minute video of me sweating on stage in front of 400 people.

Both of these are bold overstatements that paint a depressing picture on the future of ecom.

Why am I so negative about an industry that has made me rich, famous, and handsome?

Because everyone- agencies, vendors, SAAS sellers- are so fucking positive.
It is in there best interest if things keep going up.

What am I seeing and what does the future look like?

• Ecom penetration is down YOY

  • Even if consumer spending as a whole is flat, there are less ecom dollars

But consumer DISCRETIONARY spending is down YOY

• Take out travel, take out cost of living increases (food, gas, housing)

• There are less dollars floating in the money tube to be grabbed

  

• There are more merchants than ever

  • Shopifys numbers confirm that

Do the math.
Less dollars, less of those dollars online, more merchants.
Two ways to slow a car: Your breaks or a wall.
Feels like the industry chose the wall

Lets get into the data:
This was kicked off because of two things:

• Triple whale shared data that shows ecom being destroyed.

• I have access to about 50 brands and conversion rates are down 20-40% YOY.

But I ran a poll on twitter…

Do these results point to a global ecom crisis?
Well sort of…

50% of responders said profits are down YOY.
48% said sales are down.

Obviously not scientific, 200 votes lol.
But without a doubt, it will be the worst quarter ecom has ever scene.

So what would I do about it:

• Its the same advice for my 2020 post

• Build a business that can break even low to the ground

  • 1.5x MER low

    • So for every dollar on marketing, you can pay yourself and all expenses off of $1.50 in revenue

• Cut harder than you think you need too

  • Learn how to do more yourself

  • Not a good year for idea guys

• Push back on manufactures, lenders, vendors

  • Ask for 50% cuts on everything, especially cogs

    • China is panicking right now btw

  • their options- play ball or lose 100% of your business when you go under

• You are paying for things you dont need, stop

  • Shopify, email, ads

    • Seriously what the fuck else do you need?

• Never lose money acquiring a customer

  • LTV isnt real if your business has 6 months to live

• “but thats impossible on facebook”

  • Then get off facebook

  • Stop being lazy and sell your fucking product

  • What did people do before facebook?

    • tradeshows, billboards, forums, community, whatever

• It being hard isnt a reason for you to stop

  • Do you want to be an entrepreneur or not?

  • Got off your ass and learn how to make your business succeed

  • Because I wont do it for you

Everyone wants to be rich.
Everyone hates having a boss.
Everyone wants to be recognized as smart.

You arent entitled to any of it.
Go out there and make it work.
It isnt a time for egos.

You will watch brands all around you implode.
Bigger, better brands. Like made.com

Now is the time to be unkillable.